Risk warning of logistics system of foreign trade enterprises under different trade modes

  In recent years global trade is in the trough of nearly 30 years, China’s foreign trade development is facing unprecedented pressure, foreign trade enterprises to obtain the advantage of continuous adjustment of trade methods. At the same time, enterprises are in the most central position of international trade supply chain, and the logistics risk caused by any link will affect the company’s order completion. At this time, it is necessary to study the risk warning of enterprises in different trade methods.

  Construction of foreign trade enterprise logistics system risk early warning index system

  Foreign trade enterprise is an enterprise economic organization that has enterprises engaged in foreign import and export, and enterprise goods and services circulate to two or more countries or regions. This paper mainly studies the export business of foreign trade enterprises, and the process includes: customer negotiation, contract signing, procurement, workshop production or commissioning, booking, customs clearance, and shipment of goods. Each link of the business involves the flow of materials, which constitutes the operation of the logistics system of foreign trade enterprises.

  The identification of risk influencing factors of the logistics system of foreign trade enterprises is the first step of risk warning evaluation, and is the premise and foundation of logistics risk control of foreign trade enterprises. After analyzing the various aspects of foreign trade, the following foreign trade enterprise logistics system risk early warning evaluation index system can be established as follows Table 1-1.

  Early warning evaluation of enterprise logistics risk in different trade modes

  The most common trade mode of export trade is: general trade and processing trade. General trade refers to the trade of enterprises exporting unilaterally. Processing trade is a re-export business characterized by processing, and compared with general trade, there is more raw material import.

  (i) Hierarchical analysis method to determine the weight of risk indicators

  Experts and relevant staff are invited to score the six first-level indicators of foreign trade enterprises’ logistics system risk warning indexes in a two-by-two comparison to obtain a judgment matrix, as in Table 2-1.

  Inputting the above judgment data into the hierarchical analysis method software (yaahp), the first level weights of enterprise logistics system risk indicators in different trade modes can be obtained, which can be used as the set of factors for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation as follows.

  A = (0.175, 0.072, 0.36, 0.051, 0.279, 0.038)

  The maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix λmax=6.426, CI=0.085, CR= 0.068<0.1, so the judgment matrix passes the consistency test.

  (II) Set the set of comments

  The risk rating of foreign trade enterprise logistics system is set as 5 levels as follows.

  In order to facilitate quantitative calculation and analysis, the risk rating can be quantified first, such as C= (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5) = (10, 30, 50, 70, 90), and the corresponding rubric set is {very small, small, average, large, very large}.

  (iii) Determine the judgment matrix

  Determine the degree of affiliation rij of each risk indicator of foreign trade enterprise logistics system wind to each risk level, then the evaluation matrix Rij can be constructed. experts are invited to give the evaluation value Cj for each risk factor, then the degree of affiliation is calculated as

  According to the affiliation degree scores given by experts under different trade modes, the judgment matrix under two trade modes can be derived as follows.

  (iv) Conducting fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

  After the evaluation matrix R and weight set A are determined at the same time, a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of foreign trade enterprise logistics system can be carried out: B=A? berry R, where “? berry” is the operator symbol, that is, the fuzzy synthesis operation, which also becomes fuzzy transformation, that is.

  According to the principle of maximum affiliation, in the case of general trade, the early warning evaluation level of logistics risk of foreign trade companies is “less risky”, and in the case of processing trade, the early warning evaluation level of logistics risk is “average risk”, which means that the export mode of processing trade is more risky than the general trade mode to In other words, the export mode of processing trade brings greater risks to the logistics system of enterprises than the general trade mode.

  Suggestions for logistics risk control based on the evaluation results

  (1) Control the logistics system of foreign trade enterprises from the perspective of delivery time risk

  From the risk analysis of different trade methods in the above section, it can be seen that the change of delivery date is a risk factor that will have a greater impact on the logistics system of the enterprise regardless of the trading method, and the enterprise should arrange procurement and production around the delivery date in the planning process, and leave room for the delivery period.

  (B) focus on the procurement risk brought by key suppliers

  If foreign customers choose between general trade and processing trade, the side shows the higher requirements for product quality. At this time, enterprises should strengthen the management of such key suppliers from the delivery date, quality, etc., to shorten the processing trade than the extended delivery period of general trade, to prevent quality problems brought about by cross-border returns or rework.

  (C) strengthen the prevention of international logistics risks

  International logistics is a necessary and characteristic part of foreign trade enterprises engaged in international trade, mainly including the partnership of freight forwarders and shipping companies to choose. In the transaction mode, processing trade requires import customs clearance, at this time, the professional degree of freight forwarders, service quality has higher requirements.


  This paper applies logistics risk research to foreign trade enterprises, no system risk of foreign trade enterprises in different trading methods will be star early warning evaluation.

First of all, construct the index system of the influence factors of the logistics system risk of foreign trade enterprises, then combine the hierarchical analysis method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to make a comprehensive evaluation of the logistics system risk of enterprises in different trade methods, and put forward relevant risk control suggestions, to provide some reference for foreign trade enterprises to choose favorable trade methods and prevent logistics risk.